Outlook for 2006-07 Tanzania's president, Jakaya Kikwete, is expected to consolidate his position in power over the coming months while pursuing the donor-recommended economic reform agenda inherited from his predecessor. The opposition has been weakened by its poor performance in the December presidential and legislative elections and is now little more than an ineffective minority in parliament. Although the new regime on the mainland has pledged to renew its focus on resolving Zanzibar's problems, tensions on the islands will persist over the forecast period. Prospects for real GDP growth in 2006 have been affected by drought conditions and, as a result, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the economy to grow by just 5.8% this year. Better Weather conditions should see the rate of growth increase to 6.7% in 2007., a more usual level for Tanzania, as a reduction in food shortages is expected to average 5.9% in 20006 before falling to 4.8% in 2007, a more usual level for Tanzania, as a reduction in food shortages is expected. The current-account deficit is forecast to narrow slightly to 4.9% of GDP in 2006 and 3.9% of GDP in 2007 as Tanzania benefits from high international prices for gold exports and as donor inflows to the country increase. The political scene The government has entered into discussions with the semi-autonomous islands of Zanzibar over its union with the mainland.As expected, the president has started the reorganise the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi, promoting more of his supporters into positions of power. Economic policy The 2006/07 budget (July-June) has continued along the same broad themes of reducing donor dependence and economic empowerment that characterised the policy of the previous government. Similarly, the June 2006 monetary policy statement contained no surprises, targeting 4% inflation by mid-2007. The domestic economy The government has admitted that, following strong real GDP growth in 2005 (estimated at 6.8%), growth in 2006 is expected to be constrained by the impact of the drought. The arrival in July of oil-fired generators, ahead of schedule, should help to alleviate some of the power shortages caused by the drought. Foreign trade and payments Tanzania is set to benefit from a debt write-off of US$3.8bn, as part the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). The World Bank has announced its component of the MDRI. Debate within Tanzania has continued over the country's membership of regional trade organisations.

Tidak tersedia versi lain

Tidak Ada Data