The recent spate of terrorist attacks, culminating in the heavy loss of life in the school in Beslan, represents a marked escalation in terrorist tactics. The event is likely to have far-reaching repercussions for various areas of Russian policy. Economic policies have been designed to soften the impact of reforms, particularly by shifting the burden of taxation away from households and small business and on to natural resource companies, especially in the oil sector. High oil prices will make this strategy possible, allowing the government to run continued budget surpluses of over 1% of GDP in 2004-05. The somewhat lower oil prices expected in 2005 will lead to some decline in real GDP growth from 7% in 2004, and to a narrowing current-account surplus. Real rouble appreciation will also contribute to eroding growth. Strong cost-push pressures and large inflows of foreign currency will constrain the pace of disinflation. The third quarter of 2004 was marked bu Russia's worst terrorist attack thus far, when a group of armed men and women occupied a school, taking around 1,200 people hostage, many of them children. The siege ended violently, resulting in heavy casualties. The siege followed other terrorist actions in June and August. The Yukos trial continued, with back tax claims worth Rb210bn (US$7.6bn). The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) survived a split and agreed to closer co-operation with Rodina (Motherland). Discontent over the bill replacing in-kind social benefits with payments abated. The government has revised its budgetary framework for 2005 on the basis of higher oil price forecast. The surplus is now targeted at 1.5% of GDP. The government approved a list of privatisations for 2005, but removed key assets from it, most notably its stakes in Aeroflot and Svyazinvest. Power sector reform suffered further delays. The banking sector stabilised after the crisis of June-July. First-half real GDP growth was 7.4% year on year. July industrial data suggested that there will be a gradual deceleration in output growth over the second half of the year. Annual inflation execeeded 11% in August, further diminishing the like hood of meeting the government's end-year target of 10%. The foreign trade surplus reached US$34.7bn in the first half of 2004, as prices of oil exports rose by 19% year on year. This pushed the current-account surplus to US$22.6bm, from US$19.7bn in the first half of 2003.

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