Iranian real GDP growth is likely to decline considerably over the forecast period as a result lower oil prices and, in 2009, declining oil output (after OPEC-Imposed production cuts). The drop in oil earnings in 2009 will impede the government's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy, which in turn will affect the rate of private consumption and investment growth. To add to the government's woes, net oil export growth will be held back by a lack of refining capacity, which is largely a result of political interference and subdued foreign investor interest. This will leave Iran increasingly reliant on fuel imports, which have been rising despite the imposition of petrol rationing in 2007. Owing to a drought in early 2009, imports of wheat and other agricultural produce will also rise. In view of this, Iranian real GDP is forecast to grow by just 0.5% in 2009/2010, although we expect growth to recover slightly, to 2.9%, in 2010/2011. Given the dependence of Iran on oil revenue and the growing need for greater investment in the hydrocarbons industry in order to raise oil and gas production capacity, the imposition, and even the threat, of further sanctions is likely to have a long-term detrimental impact on the economy. The controversy over Iran's nuclear programme is beginning to deprive the country of muchneeded European investment, and expectations that Asian investors would fill the breach have not materialised. Although the likelihood of direct sanctions on the oil sector remains low at present, future punitive measures against the sector (sanctions on imported petrol are being mooted by the US Congress) may exacerbate the deteriorating economic outlook.

Tidak tersedia versi lain

Tidak Ada Data